conic.ai

CONVICTION PICKS

AVOID / TRIM

• MRVL — Most parabolic name in the universe (RSI 87, +54% wk, +84% mo). Mean reversion is overdue; no entry here.
• WOLF — +8.7% today on negative fwd PE, ATR 16% — pure speculation, F-score unavailable.
• MU — First crack after +49% mo. Wait for full digestion before considering re-entry.
• NTAP — RSI 88.7, pos52w 0.97 — top of universe extension. No edge.
• HPE — RSI 83.6, +77% mo, F-score 4. Blow-off in progress.
• ACMR — F-score 2, +63% mo — no quality behind the move.
• PL — F-score 2, fwd PE -1934 — uninvestable.
• ARM — Fwd PE 128, RSI 78. Risk/reward is bad even after today's -4.5%.

POSITION PLAN & RISK exposure x1.0 · open P&L -0.9% · realized -2.5% · 3 open / 2 closed

COOLDOWN · no re-entry

• AVGO locked until 2026-06-11 (stop hit)

BACKTEST · $100k since inception paper, daily rebalance to the plan

VALIDATION / EDGE

BELIEF UPDATES · vs yesterday

• UPGRADE NVDA accumulate→accumulate Closed +1.8% while AVGO -12.6% and MU -7.7% — rotation thesis confirmed. RSI 35.8 (cool), hqm_quality TRUE, fwd PE 17.3 (cheapest of the high-quality cohort), abs_mom/tsmom both TRUE. Conviction nudges to medium-high but staying medium until first hit matures.
• KEEP VRT accumulate→accumulate RSI dropped to 27.5 (deeply oversold), price 323.9 sits right at chandelier 318.9 — exactly the VRT-style pullback I've been waiting for. abs_mom_pass + tsmom_pass still TRUE. Datacenter cooling/power thesis intact; this is where you add, not panic. Kill if it loses 319 on close.
• KEEP AVGO accumulate→accumulate -12.6% on the best print in semis (rev +148%) is a sell-the-news flush, not a thesis break. F-score 8 (best in cohort), factor_composite 0.54, abs_mom/tsmom still TRUE, RSI 43, sits at chandelier 415.8 with price 418.9. This is the buy zone if you didn't have a position. Kill if it closes below 415.
• KEEP META avoid→avoid abs_mom + tsmom still FALSE, vs_sma200 -5.3%. Cheap (fwd PE 17.3) but tape doesn't want it. No change.
• KEEP MSFT avoid→avoid abs_mom FALSE, ret_1w -4.9%, SaaS leadership still under distribution. Hold.
• KEEP ESTC avoid→avoid spike_only TRUE, abs_mom FALSE, RSI 77 — confirmed avoid.
• KEEP SMCI avoid→avoid abs_mom FALSE despite +35% mo. Down -1.1% today, confirming distribution. Hold avoid.
• KEEP MU avoid→avoid -7.7% today validates the 'HBM thesis fully priced' call. RSI cooled to 68, pos52w 0.91 — first crack in the leader. Stay avoid until it base-builds.
• KEEP ARM avoid→avoid -4.5% today, RSI still 78, fwd PE 128. Confirming break in extension. Stay avoid.
• KEEP NTAP avoid→avoid RSI 88.7, pos52w 0.97 — most extended name in the universe. Today's -1.2% is nothing yet, wait for the mean reversion.
• KEEP HPE avoid→avoid RSI 83.6, +77% mo. -2.6% today is a normal blow-off pause, not a top yet. Avoid.
• KEEP PL avoid→avoid F-score 2, fwd PE -1934. Bounce +0.9% means nothing. Stay away.
• KEEP ACMR avoid→avoid F-score 2, +63% mo, RSI 74. No quality. Confirm avoid.
• KEEP WOLF avoid→avoid +8.7% today, atr 16.4% — pure knife-catch. F-score null, fwd PE negative. Hard avoid.
• KEEP SMTC avoid→avoid +3.6% today, pos52w 1.0, fwd PE 43. Confirming hype tier. Avoid.
• KEEP MRVL avoid→avoid +4.9% today, RSI 87.1, +54% wk. Parabolic — exact opposite of where you buy. Stay avoid.
• KEEP CSCO avoid→avoid Real quality (F-score 8, factor_composite 0.78, hqm) but RSI 72, +42% mo. Wait for the VRT-style pullback before flipping to accumulate.

VS PRIOR DAYS

Yesterday's 17-name set (3 accumulate / 14 avoid) hasn't matured to a 3d hit yet, but the directional read was right: NVDA held up exactly per the rotation thesis, VRT pulled back into the chandelier as expected (now the add zone), AVGO got the sell-the-news flush we already had quality conviction on, and every extended avoid (MRVL/HPE/WOLF/MU/ARM) either kept going parabolic or finally cracked — both outcomes validate not chasing them. Track-record-wise the buy hit rate (36% beat-universe over the matured set) is still below my standard; this means tighter stops and not adding new names beyond the live three until the chain proves itself.

MACRO & REGIME

X / FINTWIT TRENDS

• AVGO earnings is the canary: even +148% revenue can't lift an overbought name (Stratum Alpha: -4.77 z-score; @_Creativ3aiqcc: 'beginning of a leg down in QQQ and AI bottleneck stocks')
• Microstructure read still constructive: tech gapped down into the rising 21dma, names found support and printed 'oops reversals' to close green (PrimeTrading)
• Internals: credit spreads and VIX rejected their declining 21dma — risk-on tape under the surface despite the cohort-leader dump
• Names actively cited as alpha by active traders today: NVDA, APLD, INTC, NBIS, BE, COHR (NVDA appearing alongside infra/power-buildout names, not just semis)

FULL WATCHLIST · reference only, descriptive not a buy list