conic.ai

A daily discipline tool: what to do, what to ignore · 2026-06-03 · 98 stocks · 16:07 ET
SPY -0.72%
QQQ -0.26%
SMH 0.90%
VIX 16.1 1.8%
TODAYNo new buys. Hold VRT/NVDA/AVGO; let parabolics work themselves out; wait for AVGO print.
RISK-ON Constructive - but constructive is not a reason to chase.
This system has NO statistically validated edge yet (5 sessions). Treat every pick as a hypothesis, not a recommendation.

MARKET READ

Tape paused after a 9-day SPY run: SPY -0.72%, QQQ -0.26%, but SMH still +0.9% to a fresh ATH on MU/AMD/MRVL/ASML/AMAT 52w highs. VIX 16, risk-on 4/5 with credit the only soft vote (HY-IG -36bp 1m). Breadth thinned a hair, defensives bid intraday (XLV/XLU/XLP), SaaS (MSFT/CRM) gave back. China FXI -2.2% and Bitcoin BITO -2.9% confirm the bid is concentrated in AI infra, not broad risk. Regime shift vs yesterday: minor — same risk-on, but rotation got narrower and semis are now extending alone, which is late-cycle behavior to respect, not chase.

CONVICTION PICKS

VRT MEDIUM ACCUMULATE
Datacenter cooling/power infra. Today's -0.87% put it on chandelier stop 321 with RSI cooled to 33 — the constructive pullback after a +5.5% week. hqm_quality + abs_mom + tsmom all TRUE, factor_composite 0.46, low_vol_rank 0.52. Only carryover thesis with a clean +2 streak and 100% hit. Adds work here, not at the highs.
CHAIN · Continuation of yesterday's accumulate. Pullback confirms the entry plan rather than invalidating it.
KILL · Kill if close < 321 (chandelier) for 2 sessions, or if SMH breaks its 50d, or if AVGO earnings disappoint and the AI-infra factor cracks.
NVDA MEDIUM ACCUMULATE
Today's -3.6% while MU/MRVL/ARM extended is exactly the rotation-from-leader-to-laggard-to-leader pattern we want to fade. fwd PE 17 is the cheapest in the AI-infra cohort despite f_score 4. hqm_quality + abs_mom + tsmom all TRUE; pos52w 0.78 leaves room. Buy weakness in the highest-quality name while the tape rotates into parabolic tier-2.
CHAIN · Continuation of carryover accumulate. Today's relative weakness improves the entry, not the thesis.
KILL · Kill if close < 210 (chandelier), or if QQQ loses 720 / SPY loses 745, or if any China export-control headline lands.
AVGO MEDIUM ACCUMULATE
Best-in-cohort quality (F-score 8, factor_composite 0.62), hqm + abs_mom + tsmom all TRUE, networking-into-AI-clusters narrative reaffirmed by fintwit. Earnings this week is binary — size accordingly and let the print decide whether to scale.
CHAIN · Continuation of yesterday's pick; no change.
KILL · Kill if AVGO earnings miss or guide down; or close < 426 (chandelier). Trim into strength if RSI > 80 pre-print.

AVOID / TRIM

  • MRVL — +47% wk, RSI 86, fwd PE 49, pos52w 1.0 — parabolic tier-2.
  • ARM — fwd PE 135, RSI 84, +97% mo — worst risk/reward in book.
  • NTAP — RSI 91.5, +27% wk — most extended name in universe.
  • MU — pos52w 1.0, RSI 75, +69% mo, ret_12_1 +527% — HBM thesis fully priced.
  • HPE — RSI 88.7, +44% wk, +84% mo — blow-off.
  • CSCO — Real quality but RSI 79, +34% mo — wait for the VRT-style pullback.
  • SMCI — abs_mom FALSE, ret_12_1 -36%, spike fading.
  • ESTC — spike_only, abs_mom FALSE — already cracking.
  • ACMR — F-score 2, spike_only — chasing the spike.
  • WOLF — spike_only, fwd PE -12, atr 17.7% — knife catch.
  • SMTC — spike_only, fwd PE 42 — no fundamentals visibility.
  • PL — fwd PE -1917, -16% wk — post-earnings hangover continuing.
  • META — Downgraded from accumulate: abs_mom/tsmom FALSE, missed twice — cheap but not working.
  • MSFT — Downgraded from accumulate: SaaS leadership being sold, abs_mom FALSE.
CONCENTRATION · This book is effectively one AI-capex factor; correlated names do not diversify each other. (4 names, top sector 78.1%)

POSITION PLAN & RISK exposure x1.0 · open P&L -0.1% · realized -1.0% · 4 open / 1 closed · sizing uses priors - no validated edge yet

TKRWEIGHT?HRP / equal-weight relative allocation scaled by a regime-throttled gross-exposure budget, capped 20% per name.KELLY?Conviction tier shown for transparency only - there is no realized hit-rate yet, so it does NOT drive the weight.HRP?Hierarchical Risk Parity weight from real daily returns: correlation-aware, so correlated names share the risk budget.STOP?Initial stop = entry - 2x ATR. Volatility-adaptive risk per share.TRAIL?Chandelier exit: highest-high(22d) - 3x ATR. Daily trailing stop once in profit.SHARES?ATR-based size: shares so a 2x ATR move = 1% of a 100k notional.QUAL?Piotroski F-score gate: pass (>=6) / neutral / fail (<=4, blocked) / unknown.STRAT?Absolute-momentum read: names failing the 12m>risk-free gate are tagged mean-reversion and sized down, not dressed as momentum.
VRT10%12%22%294.89321.2127unknownstrong 12m · momentum
NVDA0%12%46%197.90210.4659failstrong 12m · momentum
AVGO20%12%32%442.43426.3827passstrong 12m · momentum

BACKTEST · $100k since inception paper, daily rebalance to the plan

Summary stats unlock at 4/10 sessions. The curves below are real but still too short to read as performance.
100k107k
Strategy (follow the plan)SMH · just buy the sectorSPY · broad marketCash · do nothing
Hypothetical paper portfolio reconstructed from the plan you would have followed each day; cash earns 0%. Not real fills, not advice, no slippage/fees modeled.
TRACK RECORD · BUILDING5/6 sessions · 22/8 matured calls before a verified track record shows.

VALIDATION / EDGE

Measuring, not yet validated (4 sessions). IC, walk-forward, benchmark-vs-SMH and the tearsheet appear here once each has enough real history.

VS PRIOR DAYS

All 22 matured calls still provisional (5 sessions). Provisional buy beat-median 43% on n=7 — humbling, says do not press conviction. VRT is the one clean win and it gave us the pullback today — that is the thesis playing out. META and MSFT carryover accumulates have missed twice each; downgraded both to watch rather than re-stacking — the lesson is that cheap+broken does not beat the market when the regime is paying for momentum quality. Avoids on parabolic tier-2 (MRVL/MU/ARM/NTAP/HPE) keep being 'wrong' as names extend, but the kill condition (parabolic + RSI>80 + late rotation) is intensifying, not weakening. Holding the line.

MACRO & REGIME

RISK-ONrisk-on 4/5VIX 16.05 normal (14-20)10y-3m 0.87breadth 64.3% >200dT-bill 3.62%

Indices (1w)

SPY0.49%
QQQ2.02%
SMH7.12%
IWM-0.95%

Rates / credit

3m T-bill3.62%
10y4.49%
10y-3m0.87%
HY-IG 1m-0.36%

International (1w)

DXY0.43%
EM2.28%
China0.65%
Japan1.78%
Europe-1.58%
Gold-0.14%
Oil7.49%
Bitcoin-12.71%

X / FINTWIT TRENDS

  • Semis still the only game: MU/AMD/MRVL/ASML/AMAT all 52w highs; SMH new ATH while SPY paused.
  • Networking infra (ANET/AVGO/CSCO) repeatedly tagged as durable AI-cluster growth segment.
  • AVGO earnings this week is the next binary event for the AI-infra factor.
  • Intraday rotation into defensives (XLV/XLU/XLP) and out of SaaS (MSFT/CRM/IGV) — narrowing leadership, classic late-cycle warning.
  • Recurring chatter: 'people desperate for a pullback' = consensus crowded long; respect but don't fade the trend yet.

FULL WATCHLIST · reference only, descriptive not a buy list

TKRNAME MOM-C?Momentum consistency gate: not bottom-quartile in ANY of 1w/1m/3m/6m (a consistent trend, not a single-window spike). NOT a fundamental-quality measure. Lightning = spike-only, do not chase. BLEND?Descriptive blend of technical + fundamental percentiles. NOT a buy signal and NOT the default sort - just a reference number. Click to sort if you want. PX 1D1W1M YTD?Year-to-date return: % change since Jan 1 this year. 1Y?1-year price trend (weekly sampled). Black line = up over the year, gray = down. Click to sort by 6-month return. RSI?Relative Strength Index (14d). Momentum oscillator 0-100. Above 70 = overbought, below 30 = oversold. 52W?Position in the 52-week range. 0.00 = at the yearly low, 1.00 = at the yearly high. VOL?Volume surge: last 5-day average volume divided by 90-day average. Above 1.0x = trading heavier than usual. P/S?Price-to-Sales ratio: market cap divided by trailing 12-month revenue. Lower = cheaper on sales. FPE?Forward P/E: price divided by next-12-month expected earnings per share. Lower = cheaper on forward earnings. TGT?Analyst target upside: mean analyst price target vs current price, in %. Negative = trading ABOVE the average target. 20/50/200?Price vs the 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages. Up arrow = price above that average (uptrend), down = below.
★ AVGO ! Broadcom Inc. 479.23 -0.5% 12.3% 12.1% 38% 74 0.99 1.3x 33.2 25.9 1%
★ NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 214.75 -3.6% 0.2% 9.3% 14% 42 0.78 1.1x 20.5 17.0 38%
★ VRT Vertiv Holdings, LLC 331.56 -0.9% 5.5% -2.8% 89% 33 0.83 0.8x 11.7 37.5 14%
AAOI Applied Optoelectronics, 184.07 -9.0% 8.9% 1.9% 365% 38 0.81 1.1x 29.1 38.6 -18%
AAPL ! Apple Inc. 310.26 -1.6% -0.7% 9.3% 15% 64 0.96 1.1x 10.1 32.3 0%
ACMR AVOID ACM Research, Inc. 88.86 -3.3% -4.3% 68.3% 98% 72 0.94 1.3x 6.4 39.4 -4%
AEHR ! Aehr Test Systems 114.59 1.4% 14.6% 25.7% 417% 56 1.00 0.8x 79.6 763.9 -44%
AEIS Advanced Energy Industri · 322.50 3.3% 1.7% -6.7% 45% 45 0.75 1.5x 6.8 27.4 22%
AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. · 66.27 -6.7% -9.2% -0.8% -10% 55 0.48 0.9x 5.6 17.5 25%
AGX Argan, Inc. · 686.59 3.5% 1.3% -4.6% 111% 43 0.90 0.6x 10.1 46.0 -31%
ALMU Aeluma, Inc. 26.80 0.9% 16.1% -2.1% 51% 41 0.77 1.2x 94.4 -108.6 7%
AMAT ! Applied Materials, Inc. 500.77 2.2% 11.4% 22.0% 87% 72 1.00 1.1x 13.7 31.0 2%
AMD ! Advanced Micro Devices, 542.52 4.0% 4.7% 52.7% 143% 74 1.00 0.8x 23.6 41.7 -12%
AMKR ! Amkor Technology, Inc. 75.20 0.6% 6.5% -2.0% 76% 51 0.95 1.1x 2.6 30.7 0%
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. · 250.02 -2.5% -8.8% -8.6% 10% 32 0.67 1.0x 3.6 25.3 25%
ANET ! Arista Networks, Inc. 174.50 -0.5% 12.4% 2.5% 31% 79 0.96 1.1x 22.6 39.2 8%
APH ! Amphenol Corporation · 147.71 -0.5% 0.0% 8.1% 6% 73 0.76 1.0x 7.0 26.1 23%
APLD Applied Digital Corporat · 44.71 -6.6% -9.9% 12.1% 59% 49 0.88 0.8x 40.0 -47.1 44%
ARM AVOID Arm Holdings plc 411.83 2.3% 22.8% 97.2% 259% 84 1.00 1.7x 89.4 134.6 -41%
ASML ! ASML Holding N.V. - New 1726.36 1.2% 7.5% 19.6% 49% 66 1.00 0.7x 19.7 35.9 -4%
ASX ! ASE Technology Holding C 39.90 1.6% -1.7% 19.3% 137% 62 0.98 1.0x 0.1 25.2 -3%
AXTI AXT Inc · 106.70 -3.7% -7.8% -0.8% 537% 44 0.75 0.8x 72.8 141.9 -18%
BE ! Bloom Energy Corporation 287.44 -5.1% -0.9% -2.6% 191% 49 0.93 1.0x 33.4 66.1 -8%
CAMT Camtek Ltd. · 183.45 -2.2% 5.0% -7.0% 59% 58 0.83 1.3x 16.9 40.5 2%
CEG Constellation Energy Cor · 267.24 -2.0% -6.7% -16.5% -27% 47 0.13 1.6x 3.2 19.6 38%
CIEN ! Ciena Corporation 620.90 -1.0% 8.9% 14.0% 152% 58 0.99 0.9x 17.1 70.4 -25%
CIFR ! Cipher Digital Inc. 26.24 -0.2% 6.7% 18.7% 62% 67 1.00 0.9x 51.2 39.2 20%
COHR ! Coherent Corp. 417.52 -2.2% 10.8% 24.4% 115% 54 0.97 1.0x 12.4 51.6 -9%
CRCL Circle Internet Group, I · 90.36 -10.4% -16.5% -20.9% 8% 22 0.19 1.0x 8.4 40.5 61%
CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. · 110.93 -7.0% 3.8% -13.3% 40% 50 0.39 1.2x 9.7 -158.5 25%
CSCO AVOID Cisco Systems, Inc. 126.50 -1.2% 6.6% 34.1% 67% 79 0.98 1.1x 8.2 26.5 -1%
DKNG DraftKings Inc. · 25.11 -0.8% 2.4% 3.9% -30% 50 0.16 1.1x 2.0 14.7 38%
DLR Digital Realty Trust, In · 183.52 -2.0% -4.1% -6.7% 19% 35 0.64 1.0x 10.4 64.1 19%
DOCS Doximity, Inc. · 21.04 -2.2% -0.1% -18.4% -51% 42 0.05 0.9x 6.0 13.2 20%
ENTG Entegris, Inc. · 140.33 -1.8% 1.4% -6.0% 57% 46 0.82 0.9x 6.6 30.4 14%
EQIX ! Equinix, Inc. 1077.00 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 42% 52 0.92 0.9x 11.2 56.0 11%
ESTC AVOID Elastic N.V. 64.11 -5.2% 11.3% 27.8% -12% 77 0.41 2.0x 3.8 16.6 12%
ETN ! Eaton Corporation, PLC 421.34 0.9% 4.8% 2.8% 29% 57 0.91 0.8x 5.7 26.8 7%
FN ! Fabrinet 725.95 3.5% 8.7% 9.9% 51% 54 0.96 1.7x 6.1 42.0 3%
FORM FormFactor, Inc. · 126.02 0.7% -3.2% -13.1% 113% 47 0.77 0.9x 11.7 46.4 15%
FSLY Fastly, Inc. · 20.83 0.3% 23.0% -35.6% 104% 63 0.53 0.7x 5.0 52.8 16%
FTAI FTAI Aviation Ltd. · 247.01 0.5% -6.0% 1.3% 18% 41 0.69 0.6x 8.9 21.4 42%
GDS GDS Holdings Limited · 35.17 -4.7% -0.2% -21.8% -8% 18 0.47 1.6x 0.6 218.2 53%
GEV GE Vernova Inc. · 959.62 -1.0% -3.7% -12.4% 41% 34 0.72 1.1x 6.5 39.1 27%
GLW ! Corning Incorporated 200.85 0.2% 9.9% 24.1% 122% 47 0.96 1.0x 10.6 47.6 -2%
GOOG Alphabet Inc. · 355.68 -0.8% -7.9% -7.4% 13% 12 0.81 1.5x 10.2 24.5 15%
HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. · 27.52 0.0% 8.4% 4.5% -18% 67 0.25 0.5x 2.7 21.4 -3%
HPE AVOID Hewlett Packard Enterpri 55.16 -1.8% 44.4% 83.6% 130% 89 0.97 4.1x 1.9 13.7 -46%
ICHR ! Ichor Holdings 72.45 -3.3% 3.3% 6.9% 255% 47 0.93 1.3x 2.6 27.7 6%
INTC Intel Corporation · 112.71 4.4% -6.8% 4.2% 186% 42 0.85 1.1x 10.5 72.9 -21%
INTR Inter & Co. Inc. · 5.80 -3.3% -8.5% -23.6% -30% 42 0.01 2.0x 0.4 5.5 67%
IOT ! Samsara Inc. · 36.35 -2.7% 15.1% 19.4% 7% 75 0.53 1.1x 13.1 43.1 21%
KLAC ! KLA Corporation 2125.11 3.9% 10.2% 22.8% 67% 68 1.00 0.9x 21.2 42.6 -13%
LASR nLIGHT, Inc. · 76.39 0.0% -3.5% 14.1% 99% 45 0.88 0.8x 14.9 113.1 13%
LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. · 938.00 -8.9% 9.0% -5.7% 143% 43 0.88 1.1x 29.3 51.8 18%
LPTH LightPath Technologies, 15.62 -2.9% -13.9% 29.1% 33% 65 0.84 1.6x 15.6 120.2 2%
LRCX ! Lam Research Corporation 343.71 2.8% 8.1% 24.6% 86% 72 1.00 0.9x 19.8 43.3 -9%
META AVOID Meta Platforms, Inc. · 622.98 4.2% -1.9% 3.0% -4% 53 0.37 1.3x 7.4 17.2 33%
MKSI ! MKS Inc. 335.15 1.1% 3.6% 16.5% 99% 59 1.00 0.7x 5.6 22.4 7%
MOD ! Modine Manufacturing Com 301.55 -1.7% 11.4% 11.0% 114% 56 0.98 1.1x 5.0 26.6 13%
MPWR ! Monolithic Power Systems 1689.89 4.0% 3.5% 6.4% 81% 53 1.00 1.1x 28.1 56.0 6%
MRVL AVOID Marvell Technology, Inc. 301.65 3.7% 47.3% 78.8% 238% 86 1.00 2.7x 30.3 49.0 -26%
MSFT AVOID Microsoft Corporation · 427.34 -3.2% 0.1% 4.1% -9% 60 0.39 1.4x 10.0 22.1 31%
MTSI ! MACOM Technology Solutio 390.34 2.1% -0.2% 28.6% 123% 53 0.93 1.5x 27.7 57.0 1%
MU AVOID Micron Technology, Inc. 1079.57 1.5% 16.9% 68.6% 242% 75 1.00 1.1x 20.9 10.2 -33%
NET ! Cloudflare, Inc. 265.48 -2.6% 16.4% 8.6% 35% 84 0.94 1.1x 40.3 174.1 -12%
NFLX Netflix, Inc. · 81.52 -2.2% -5.6% -7.2% -10% 28 0.10 0.9x 7.3 21.2 41%
NTAP AVOID NetApp, Inc. 181.08 3.1% 27.2% 58.6% 71% 91 1.00 2.6x 5.2 18.4 -10%
NTES NetEase, Inc. · 122.64 -1.7% -1.1% 6.6% -16% 55 0.28 0.9x 0.7 11.5 33%
ON ! ON Semiconductor Corpora 133.93 4.1% 8.2% 30.4% 136% 66 1.00 1.0x 8.6 31.4 -21%
ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. · 280.01 0.7% 8.2% -8.2% 69% 51 0.87 1.2x 13.5 29.5 26%
OPTX ! Syntec Optics Holdings, 12.63 -4.5% 14.4% 64.5% 304% 71 0.95 1.3x 18.5 nan nan%
ORCL Oracle Corporation 230.47 -5.8% 13.1% 24.3% 18% 69 0.50 1.2x 10.3 28.6 6%
P Everpure, Inc. · 80.96 -2.4% 10.8% 8.5% 17% 47 0.62 1.9x 6.8 26.9 15%
PINS Pinterest, Inc. · 20.68 -0.9% 0.2% -7.2% -22% 60 0.22 1.4x 2.6 9.2 34%
PL AVOID Planet Labs PBC · 43.13 -10.3% -16.1% 16.2% 111% 55 0.83 1.1x 50.0 -1917.1 -18%
SATS EchoStar Corporation · 120.92 -2.1% -7.7% 3.1% 8% 37 0.83 1.0x 2.4 -1060.7 14%
SMCI AVOID Super Micro Computer, In 47.42 -5.5% 14.8% 70.4% 53% 80 0.67 1.7x 0.8 14.6 -21%
SMTC AVOID Semtech Corporation 163.50 -1.9% -1.7% 44.7% 117% 62 0.98 1.5x 14.0 42.1 25%
SNAP Snap Inc. · 5.73 -0.5% -3.0% -6.2% -30% 54 0.28 0.9x 1.6 7.7 33%
SNDK ! Sandisk Corporation 1831.50 6.7% 11.6% 30.2% 565% 72 1.00 0.5x 20.6 10.3 -12%
SOLS ! Solstice Advanced Materi 86.60 -0.9% 2.4% 3.7% 76% 47 0.96 0.6x 3.5 27.7 2% ·
STNE StoneCo Ltd. · 10.64 -5.3% -6.1% -4.0% -12% 64 0.16 1.0x 0.2 4.2 65%
STX ! Seagate Technology Holdi 940.69 1.5% 6.8% 22.0% 228% 71 1.00 0.8x 19.2 35.4 -12%
TER ! Teradyne, Inc. 409.67 4.3% 7.1% 14.8% 98% 63 0.98 0.9x 16.9 43.1 -10%
TSLA Tesla, Inc. · 423.70 -0.0% -4.2% 8.8% -3% 40 0.68 0.7x 16.3 168.8 -3%
TSM ! Taiwan Semiconductor Man 437.12 -2.1% 2.9% 10.8% 37% 65 0.96 0.9x 0.6 22.4 7%
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Sof · 215.80 -3.0% -1.0% -3.3% -14% 41 0.36 1.4x 6.0 21.4 29%
U Unity Software Inc. · 29.22 -5.0% -2.4% 6.9% -34% 60 0.37 0.7x 6.6 21.9 19%
UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. · 71.69 0.1% 1.1% -1.7% -13% 39 0.08 1.3x 2.7 16.4 46%
UCTT ! Ultra Clean Holdings, In 92.55 2.6% 6.0% 11.3% 239% 59 1.00 1.2x 2.0 24.5 13%
UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. · 30.29 -6.5% -7.3% -2.8% -34% 61 0.10 1.0x 2.5 8.8 33%
VIAV ! Viavi Solutions Inc. 52.42 -0.9% 8.1% -2.9% 189% 47 0.94 1.2x 9.5 40.9 23%
VICR ! Vicor Corporation 330.48 -0.7% -3.4% 24.2% 183% 56 0.95 0.7x 35.3 59.5 -2%
VST Vistra Corp. · 153.82 -2.6% -4.0% -4.1% -7% 60 0.23 0.8x 2.7 14.0 46%
WDC ! Western Digital Corporat 594.11 5.5% 11.8% 27.7% 217% 78 1.00 0.7x 17.4 33.7 -13%
WOLF AVOID Wolfspeed, Inc. 61.70 1.0% -5.2% 68.4% 226% 49 0.80 1.8x 4.2 -12.3 -35% ·
XP XP Inc. · 15.60 -3.7% -8.0% -17.5% -4% 35 0.00 0.9x 0.4 6.4 56%